Guide
Blind box odds explained: what "1 in 72" really means
The odds on a blind box tell you how rare each figure is in one box. They don't promise you a secret after a set number of boxes, and that gap is where most fans spend too much.
How to read the odds on the box
Most series list two kinds of odds. In a six-figure series, each regular figure is 1/6, and the secret is usually 1/72.
In a 12-figure series, each regular is 1/12, and the secret is usually 1/144. Pop Mart's Hirono The Other One listing shows exactly that: regular 1/12, secret 1/144.
So "1 in 72" means each box has about a 1.4% chance of holding the secret. That's the whole promise, one box at a time.
Why 72 boxes still might not do it
A box doesn't know what you opened yesterday. Your first box and your 71st box have the same 1.4% chance, so box 100 is never "due."
The chance of missing the secret in all 72 boxes is about 37%. Turn that around, and your chance of at least one secret after 72 boxes is about 63%.
| Boxes opened | At 1 in 72 | At 1 in 144 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 (one six-box set) | 8% | 4% |
| 12 (one 12-box set) | 16% | 8% |
| 50 | 50% | 29% |
| 100 | 75% | 50% |
| 165 | 90% | 68% |
Want your own row? Put any number of boxes into the secret odds calculator.
What an even chance costs
At 1 in 72, you need 50 boxes before the odds tip your way. At $19.99 a box, the price of Pop Mart's 2026 Genshin Impact boxes, that's $999.50 for a coin flip.
At 1 in 144, the same coin flip takes 100 boxes, or $1,999 at the same price. That's more than eight whole Genshin Impact sets at $239.88 each.
That's why many fans who only want the secret buy it from a trusted seller once they see the total.
Four habits that save money
- Pick your number of boxes before you start, and check what chance it buys you.
- If you want every regular figure, compare a whole set with random boxes in the full set cost calculator.
- Swap your repeats with friends before you buy another box, because every trade is a box you skip.
- Treat the secret as a bonus in a set you'd buy anyway, never as the reason to keep opening.
Are the odds on the box exact?
They describe how the factory packs boxes across many cases. One store shelf or one online drop can run a little lucky or unlucky, so treat the odds as a long-run average.
Odds also change from series to series. Always use the odds for your exact series, and use 1 in 144 as a safe guess when none are listed.