Series calculator: Smiski

Smiski secret odds: how many boxes for a secret?

Most Smiski series have 6 figures and one secret at about 1 in 144. At $12.25 a box, an even chance at the secret takes 100 boxes, or $1,225.

Smiski at a glance

Maker	Dreams Inc., Japan
Figures per series	Usually 6 regulars and 1 secret
Secret odds	About 1 in 144 for most series
Moving, Sunday, Birthday	About 1 in 72
Price	$12.25 a box, or $147 for 12, at the Sonny Angel USA store
Official odds	Not published. Smiski only says the secret is “rare to find”

1. Your chance of a secret Smiski

Secret odds: 1 in

Boxes you'll open One assortment box is 12.

Price per box

Change it to what you pay.

Your chance of at least one secret in 12 boxes: 8%

You'd spend$147.00

Even chance takes100 boxes$1,225.00

90% chance takes331 boxes$4,054.75

Even after 144 boxes, your chance is only about 63%, because every box is a fresh roll and nothing carries over.

2. What all 6 figures cost

Regular figures in the series

Secret odds: 1 in A secret takes a regular figure's place.

Price per single box

Assortment box price

Boxes in one assortment box Most Smiski assortment boxes hold 12.

Buying random single boxes, the average collector needs 15 boxes to see all 6 regular figures.

Average cost$183.75

Repeats on the way9 figures

Unlucky 1 in 10 needs23 boxes$281.75

That's about 1.3 assortment boxes of 12 at $147.00 each. An assortment box can still have repeats, so buying by the box doesn't skip this math.

Next stepIs buying the secret cheaper than pulling it? Compare the two.

Which odds to type in

Dreams Inc. doesn't print Smiski odds. Collectors and stores use about 1 in 144 for most series.

Blink Box, a Smiski stockist, lists the Moving, Sunday and Birthday series at 1 in 72. That doubles your chance: 12 boxes give you about 15% instead of 8%. Pick the button that matches your series above. For any other series, stay with 144.

Does a 12-box assortment box help?

Not with the secret. Smiski's own site says the secret "may not always be included in one assort box." At 1 in 144, 12 boxes give you about an 8% chance.

It also costs the same per box: $147 for 12 is $12.25 each. With only 6 figures, 12 boxes means at least 6 repeats.

Still, many fans love the figures for their own sake, and swap their repeats at meet-ups. At a swap meet in Lawrence, Kansas, Smiski collector Grace Powers told The University Daily Kansan, "I think it's just fun that everyone's coming to bond about it."

Questions collectors ask

Do the regular Smiskis have equal odds?

Dreams Inc. doesn't publish odds for the regulars either. The calculator treats them as equal, so read its answers as a guide.

How many boxes give me a 90% chance?

At 1 in 144, it takes 331 boxes, or $4,054.75. At 1 in 72, it takes 165 boxes, or $2,021.25.

Odds for other series

Prices checked on October 31, 2026. Series change, so check the odds on your own box.