Series calculator: Pop Mart figures

Pop Mart secret odds: Hirono, Skullpanda and more

Most 12-figure Pop Mart series have one secret at 1 in 144. At $19.99 a box, an even chance takes 100 boxes, or $1,999.

1. Your chance of the secret

Secret odds: 1 in

1 in 1441 in 1081 in 72

Boxes you'll open A 12-figure whole set is 12.

Price per box

$

Change it to what you pay.

Your chance of at least one secret in 12 boxes: 8%

You'd spend$239.88

Even chance takes100 boxes$1,999.00

90% chance takes331 boxes$6,616.69

Even after 144 boxes, your chance is only about 63%, because every box is a fresh roll and nothing carries over.

2. What every regular figure costs

Regular figures in the series

12 figures9 figures

Secret odds: 1 in A secret takes a regular figure's place.

Price per single box

$

Whole set price

$

Box price × figures.

Buying random single boxes, the average collector needs 37 boxes to see all 12 regular figures.

Average cost$739.63

Repeats on the way25 figures

Unlucky 1 in 10 needs56 boxes$1,119.44

A whole set at $239.88 costs about $499.75 less than chasing the same figures one random box at a time.

Next stepIs buying the secret cheaper than pulling it? Compare the two.

Find the odds on your box

Pop Mart lists the odds on its product pages. The Hirono The Other One listing, for example, says "regular 1/12, secret 1/144."

Crybaby figure series, like Crying to the Moon, sell for $19.99 too. Check the box for its odds and type them in above. If you can't find them, use 1 in 144 for a 12-figure series as a rough guess.

Nine-figure series are kinder

A 9-figure series at 1 in 72 needs 50 boxes for an even chance. A 12-figure series at 1 in 144 needs 100, so the smaller series takes half the boxes and half the money.

Some series have two secrets. Skullpanda Tell Me What You Want lists one at 1 in 27 and one at 1 in 108. Together, that's about 1 in 22 for any secret.

Why fans keep buying anyway

Each figure tells its own small story, and in a 12-figure series that's 12 stories to collect. The average fan opens 37 random boxes to get them all.

But the chase adds up. Professor Jing Wan told CBC that buyers "are now buying a lot of things just simply in the hopes of getting that one thing." Check the cost above before you chase.

Questions collectors ask

Does a Pop Mart whole set include the secret?

Only by luck. A whole set has no repeats, and the secret, if it shows up, takes a regular figure's place. At 1 in 144, a 12-box set has about an 8% chance.

How many boxes give me a 90% chance?

331 boxes at 1 in 144, or $6,616.69 at $19.99. At 1 in 72, it's 165 boxes.

Odds for other series

• Labubu Big Into Energy
• Labubu Have a Seat
• Smiski
• Sonny Angel