Calculator
Is that confirmed figure a fair price?
A confirmed figure is a blind box the seller has already checked, so you know what's inside. It's a good deal when it costs less than pulling that figure yourself, about $164 for one Have a Seat figure.
Pulling one figure you choose takes 6.1 boxes on average, or about $164.22.
The confirmed figure saves you about $119.22 compared with the average hunt. Anything under $164.22 beats pulling it yourself.
What "confirmed" means
A confirmed box is still the official blind box, but the surprise is gone. As Pop Collector World puts it, "The seller already knows which figure is inside and lists it accordingly."
So you pay more than the box price, and in return you skip the repeats. Whether that's a good trade depends on one number, which is what the same figure would cost you in random boxes.
Check the seller before the price
A low price means nothing if the figure is fake. Collector Emmeline Roane told Refinery29, "It's a gamble if you don't know how to authenticate them."
Buy from sellers with a long record of good feedback, and ask for photos of the exact box you'll get. Then hold the photos up against Pop Mart's own product pictures, from the face paint to the box print.
Questions collectors ask
Is it fair for a confirmed figure to cost more than a blind box?
Yes, up to a point. You're paying to skip the repeats, so a fair top price is about what pulling it would cost you, shown above.
Can I get a confirmed secret?
Yes, sellers list them, but compare the price with the pull or buy calculator first. Secrets are where fakes cost the most.