Calculator
Secret figure odds calculator
Type in the secret odds for your series and how many boxes you plan to open. You'll see your real chance of a secret, and what an even or a 90% chance would cost.
Your chance of at least one secret in 6 boxes: 8%
Even after 72 boxes, your chance is only about 63%, because every box is a fresh roll and nothing carries over.
Where to find the odds for your series
Look on the official product page, or on the side of the big display box in the store. Pop Mart's Hirono The Other One listing, for example, says "regular 1/12, secret 1/144."
Smiski secrets are usually about 1 in 144 too. If your series doesn't list any odds, type 144 as a safe guess, and treat the answer as rough.
Why the secret takes so long to show up
Each box has the same small chance of holding the secret, no matter what you opened before. So six boxes at 1 in 72 give you only about an 8% chance.
That's why many fans own a shelf of figures and still no secret. Even after 72 boxes at 1 in 72, more than 1 fan in 3 is still waiting for it.
Questions collectors ask
Does a sealed whole set give me a better chance?
Not really. A whole set from Pop Mart stops repeat figures. But in its 2026 Genshin Impact series, the secret still shows up at 1 in 144 and just takes a regular figure's place.
Is it cheaper to just buy the secret?
Often, yes. Compare the cost of an even chance above with the price from a trusted seller.
But watch for fakes sold as a "secret." One eBay buyer wrote about a listing, "It said it was the secret and wasn't."
Want every regular figure too? Try the full set cost calculator.